Mike Avery / The Courier via AP A funnel cloud of the tornado that touched down in Atkins, Ark., is seen at about 5 p.m. Tuesday. |
WASHINGTON - All the right ingredients combined for Tuesday's killer tornadoes, especially warm moist air and a shifting weather pattern courtesy of the La Niña phenomenon. Just one thing was off: The calendar.
The Feb. 5 killer tornadoes — at least the 15th deadliest U.S. outbreak on record — had all the earmarks of a batch of twisters usually seen in March, said several meteorologists.
It was farther north than most February tornadoes and stronger, said Joseph Schaefer, director of the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla.
Tornadoes do happen in February, but a study by Schaefer two years ago found that winter tornadoes in parts of the South occur more frequently and are stronger when there is a La Niña, a cooling of Pacific waters that is the flip side of the better known El Nino. In 1971, a deadlier February outbreak in the Mississippi Delta killed 121 people.
But Tuesday's weather violence, which killed at least 50 people, was noteworthy. February tornadoes usually pop up near the Gulf Coast, not in Kentucky or Tennessee, said University of Oklahoma meteorology professor Howard Bluestein.
Part of the explanation is record warmth. It was 84 degrees in Oklahoma before the storm front moved through on its path of destruction. On Tuesday, 97 weather stations broke or tied records in Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky — the hardest-hit states.
Meteorologists are quick to say they cannot blame global warming. There is not enough good data over enough years with weather events as small as tornadoes, to draw such conclusions.
But there were plenty of the standard ingredients for tornado formation Tuesday: a strong storm system coming from the west (this one buried parts of Colorado in snow); warm air near the ground; high winds; and warm moist air coming north from the Gulf of Mexico.
La Niña shifts jet stream
While La Niña doesn't specifically cause tornadoes, it helps shift the jet stream, pushing storms from the West and moisture from the Gulf into the necessary collision course over the South, said Schaefer.
Like El Nino, it happens every few years, and it's been changing global weather patterns for a few months now, strengthening in January, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center, which monitors La Niña.
Preliminary figures for January — the numbers usually drop after closer scrutiny — show 136 tornadoes, five tornado deaths and three killer tornadoes. The average from 1997-2007 is 40 tornadoes, three deaths, and three killer tornadoes. The record for most tornadoes was 212 in January 1999.
Between 1997 and 2007, the average February has 30 tornadoes, killing 9 people. Early reports tallied 68 tornadoes so far this month.
"We're off to a big start for the year," said Greg Carbin, a meteorologist at the storm center.
Get used to this because the patterns that lead to tornado outbreaks seem to be here for a while, meteorologists said.
"As long as the pattern remains the same it can be very active," Schaefer said. "It's not a time to let down your guard."
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Reuters
LAFAYETTE, Tenn. - President Bush on Friday tried to lift the spirits of people in rural Macon County, which suffered the heaviest death toll from dozens of tornadoes that tore across Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi, Kentucky and Alabama.
"There's no doubt in my mind this community will come back better than before," Bush said in the poor tobacco-farming area near the Kentucky border. "Macon County people are down-to-earth, hardworking, God-fearing people. They're just getting a little help and will come back stronger."
Even before Bush landed, he declared major disasters in Tennessee and Arkansas, a move that opens the spigot of federal funding to cover some costs, shared with local governments, for debris removal and protective measures and to help individuals. Sensitive to criticism it was ignoring other states hit by the storms, the White House said these were the only two states that had so far asked for help.
A barrage of tornadoes swept through those five Southern states on Tuesday, and the death count is nearly 60 so far, even as search operations continue. Macon County took the heaviest toll. A 14th death in the county was reported Thursday.
Viewing disaster from above
Bush began his visit to the disaster zone the way he usually does: by getting a look at the damage from his helicopter, in this case on his way in from Nashville. He was traveling with members of Congress from Tennessee — both senators and three local congressmen — but with a pared-down White House staff to keep his usually large footprint as small as possible.
As Bush's helicopter flew low over the hills of sparsely populated north central Tennessee, he saw snapped trees and remnants of buildings strewn across fields as if they had been dragged by the storm. The twisters' impact was random. Intact structures and destroyed ones were often just feet apart.
Bush said it was unfortunate that he had to visit the state under these circumstances.
"But nonetheless, the mission is to find out what we can do to help," he said.
The president received a briefing on the damage at a local fire department from a range of officials, including Gov. Phil Bredesen, a Democrat, the heads of the state National Guard and Lafayette Mayor Bill Wells. A coordinating officer from the regional FEMA office, Gracia Szczech, told Bush about the federal resources that have been committed to the area.
Her assessment was backed up by James Bassham, the director of the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency, who said he had nothing but praise for his federal counterparts. Bassham said it was remarkable that more lives weren't lost, as 31 touchdowns were recorded. He credited early warnings from the National Weather Service and the state.
"People have got to understand here in the region that a lot of folks around America care for them now," Bush said. "And I'm here to listen, to determine — you know, to make sure — that the federal response is compassionate and effective."
Afterward, Bush was going to a neighborhood to get an on-the-ground look at the destruction.
In all, he was spending about 2 1/2 hours in the disaster zone. But it was notable that he sped to the region, arriving for a firsthand view less than three days after the tornadoes roared through.
Disasters have struck often in Bush's presidency, allowing him to display prowess in some but not all — most notably Hurricane Katrina in 2005. His and his administration's response in the immediate aftermath of that massive storm — and since — has persistently been criticized for leaving Gulf Coast residents and towns, particularly those in New Orleans, without the help they need. Bush has labored since to respond quickly, decisively and compassionately when disasters hit, but the impression of him cast in Katrina's devastation has never been erased and is likely to linger as part of his presidential legacy.
White House spokesman Scott Stanzel said the government has learned many lessons since Katrina, and is much better now at not only answering locals' needs in times of emergency, but anticipating them. FEMA assets were in the tornado-struck region as early as Tuesday night, he said.
"States and localities have also given a lot of thought to the issue over the years and have improved their response as well," he said.
URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23069771/