AFP/File – US soldiers stand close to an Iraqi soldier manning his rifle on top of a vehicle in Baghdad in September …
A U.S.-Iraqi security agreement spelling out how American troops and contractors operate was supposed to be in place over the summer, but the thorniest issues remain unsettled and neither side is budging.
Time is running out. The deal must be finished and ratified by Iraq's parliament before Dec. 31, when the U.N. mandate authorizing the U.S. military mission expires. Otherwise, there will be no legal basis for the U.S. presence in Iraq.
For President Bush, some of the pressure to get a fast deal has faded since Iraq is no longer a dominant issue in the presidential campaign.
For the Iraqi leadership, however, political crosscurrents have grown more complicated because of upcoming provincial elections and strong Iranian opposition to any security agreement.
Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte and Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari sought to put a favorable spin on the talks, telling reporters at a joint press conference in Baghdad this week that the two sides were close to a deal.
"There is a mutual desire to sign this agreement because it is necessary for Iraq's development, to safeguard oil resources, to enable Iraqi forces to handle security and to complete our national independence," President Jalal Talabani told state television Wednesday.
But negotiations were supposed to have been wrapped up in July. With the clock ticking, the two sides still cannot agree on two key issues — legal jurisdiction over U.S. troops and contractors and a timeline for a U.S. withdrawal.
The Iraqis insist on the right to try American troops accused of crimes — at least when alleged offenses are committed off U.S. bases. The Iraqis want the last American soldiers to leave Iraq by the end of 2011 unless the Baghdad government asks them to stay.
U.S. negotiators want the withdrawal tied to the security situation rather than dates. Both sides describe their positions as "red lines."
"The Americans show no interest in committing themselves to any deadline or timetable and they think that such process depends on the situation on the ground," Kurdish lawmaker Mahmoud Othman said.
Arab states in the Persian Gulf have urged him privately to accept the deal as a counterweight to Iran, according to Iraqi officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not supposed to talk about diplomatic contacts.
At the same time, however, Iran has stepped up its public campaign against the agreement. President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad told a visiting Iraqi official Tuesday that the Iraqi government and people had a "duty" to resist the Americans. Iran's parliament speaker Ali Larijani warned of "unpleasant impacts" if the Iraqis accept the deal.
The Iranians have influence among Iraqi Shiite parties whose support al-Maliki needs. U.S. officials also worry that Iran could step up support for Shiite militants still capable of launching attacks in Baghdad and elsewhere.
In an interview last week with The Associated Press, al-Maliki spoke of pressure "from east and west and north and south" but said he was "determined to rise above all these difficulties and pressures because we want this agreement to be passed."
Neither side has signaled what it would do if the year ends without an agreement.
Iraq will accept offers for a first bidding round for long-term contracts for six oilfields and two gas fields in March 2009, its oil minister said on Monday.
Hussain Al-Shahristani said in an interview that Iraq was also planning to announce a second bidding round for long-term oil contracts in December 2008. The first bidding round was announced in June this year.
"We are working on announcing the second round of bidding in the last month of the year - December," he said.
"So far we did not announce which oilfields will be included, but in December when we announce the bidding we will announce the fields as well."
"The list is not finalised, there is still a field or two that we have not decided on and we are still discussing. It's all going to be explored fields and giant fields."
Al-Shahristani will meet in London on Oct. 13 with 35 oil companies qualified to participate in the first bidding round, which covers the Rumaila, Kirkuk, Zubair, West Qurna Phase 1, Bai Hassan and Maysan oilfields, and the Akkas and Mansuriya gas fields.
He said the criteria for bidding would be based on the cost of halting output decline, boosting output and maintaining long-term output.
He said he would present the companies with model contracts to help them prepare their offers.
"It's important for the companies to know how the contract is going to be so that they can prepare their offers based on the conditions in the contract... Then we are going to give them until March 2009 to present their offers," he said.
"We will notify them of the biddable parameters which the companies are going to offer - what exactly they are going to compete for. For example: what figure they will offer to win the contracts in dollars per barrels of production.
"We are going to have a baseline production [parameter]... the increased production above the baseline production will be another biddable parameter... and the quantity produced during the time of the contract."
He said the model contract would also include other conditions like taxes and the governing law, which will be Iraqi law.