AFP/Getty Images/File – Secretary of Defense Robert Gates speaks after a tour of an Engagement Skills Trainer facility in October …
US Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who has steered US forces toward the exit in Iraq, now looks set to oversee a strategic pivot toward Afghanistan under president-elect Barack Obama.
Obama's decision to ask Gates, 65, to stay on the job for at least another year leaked late Tuesday, ending weeks of speculation that the president-elect would opt for continuity in the first wartime transition in 40 years.
A Pentagon spokesman would not confirm the decision, but Democratic operatives told US media that Gates would be named when Obama unveils his national security team next week.
Gates, who is scheduled to visit an air base in North Dakota on Monday, would not require Senate confirmation. He has already polled his senior staff to see who would be able to stay on into the transition, officials have said.
"My hunch is people are not just comfortable that he would stay around, but are comforted by it," said a US military official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
"In fact, I would argue that he's been viewed (within the military) as an excellent secretary of defense who has led calmly and with great wisdom," the official said.
It would be the first time the defense secretary of one administration was kept on by a new president from another party, in this case one who campaigned against his predecessor's war policy.
The pace of the US withdrawal from Iraq is likely to be the biggest bone of contention, with Obama calling during the White House campaign for a rapid 16-month withdrawal of all US forces.
However, that position may soften with an agreement now before the Iraqi parliament calling for the withdrawal of all US troops by the end of 2011, a timetable US military leaders say will be difficult but doable.
"I will call in the Joint Chiefs of Staff, my national security apparatus, and we will start executing a plan that draws down our troops" from Iraq, Obama said in a CBS interview September 16.
"Particularly in light of the problems that we're having in Afghanistan, which has continued to worsen. We've got to shore up those efforts," he said.
Afghanistan is where Gates and the Obama team appear to be most in synch.
Both have advocated an increase in US force levels, an acclerated program to expand the Afghan security forces, and a broader strategic plan that encompasses Pakistan, a hideout for al-Qaeda and a staging ground for Taliban attacks in Afghanistan.
Some observers believe that Gates will bow out once an Obama team has had time to settle in and get their bearings.
Historical studies by the Joint Staff have shown that major events often have occurred within a year of a new president's taking office.
Lapses in attention to terrorism during the early months of the Bush administration helped set the stage for the September 11, 2001 attacks.
On other flashpoint problems, like Iran, Gates has warned against military action except as a last resort, and pushed "soft power," arguing for more money and a greater role for diplomacy and other non-military instruments of power.
"Not every outrage, every act of aggression, every crisis can or should elicit an American military response, and we should acknowledge such," he told an audience of military officers at the National Defense University earlier this year.
"Be modest about what military force can accomplish, and what technology can accomplish," he said.
Barack Obama in February, 2008: "I don't want to just end the war; I want to end the mindset that got us into war."
Barack Obama in November, 2008: "Never mind."
All indications are that the man who has run George Bush's nightmarish occupation of Iraq -- along with the downward spiral that is Afghanistan -- will now manage Barack Obama's nightmarish occupation of Iraq and the new president's plans to turn Afghanistan into a full-blown quagmire.
What should be make of the talk of keeping Secretary of Defense Robert Gates -- despite his scorching case of mission creep -- at his desk in the Pentagon?
During the campaign, Obama drove home that this era's signature test of foreign policy judgment was whether or not you supported the invasion of Iraq. Gates failed that test. Gates has also been vocally opposed to Obama's withdrawal plan. It takes a vivid imagination to picture Gates implementing and successfully defending a timeline for troop withdrawal.
I'm also very concerned about Gates' positions on arms control - especially nuclear weapons. At a time when people like Henry Kissinger and George Shultz are calling for steps towards a nuclear weapons free world, Gates been calling for a new generation of nuclear weapons.
The peace movement helped elect Obama president, and we need your help now to see this chance for change through. Tell Obama's transition team that it's too risky to put Obama's Iraq withdrawal plan in Gates's hands by clicking here and leaving your personal message for Obama on his Change.gov transition site. Then, tell 5 of your friends about this action.
I am truly hopeful about the potential for change that a new president embodies. And at Peace Action we will do our part to make sure the momentum for a better, wiser and more just foreign policy keeps going. Please send a message today to the President-elect's transition team, and remind them that voters want fresh leadership at the Pentagon here.
Barack Obama will be President, what makes you think Gates will be calling
the shots with respect to foreign policy. Obama has the vision and Obama
is the Commander-In-Chief. 8 years of Bush has ruined your thinking.
GATES WILL WORK FOR OBAMA - NOT THE REVERSE.
OK, Capt! You are right! I have been blinded by Bush's so called "War On
Terror". Obama is committed to that same so called "War On Terror". Keeping
Gates on board is confirmation of that, as I see it. The change and vision
that I have for America to get out of Iraq and Afghanistan immediately.
Obviously Obama doesn't have that vision. What's your vision for Iraq and
Afghanistan, Capt?
Gates is a transitional figure in Obama's Administration. Gates made quite
a few statements during Bush's term that showed him acknowledging the
truths of war in Iraq and Afghanistan. Obama will use Gate's assessments
to get us out of Iraq, not to stay. In Afghanistan, Karzai wants to get a
settlement with the Taliban. Obama will discover it will be better to go
after Osama Bin Laden surreptitiously instead of using military force.
This will be handled with enlisting local spies, the use of Special Forces,
with a little assistance from the Air Force and Navy. It won't be
necessary to keep the massive forces we have in the Middle East wasting
taxpayers' dollars.